Impact of COVID-19 on electricity energy consumption: A quantitative analysis on electricity

In addition to the tremendous loss of life due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the pandemic created
challenges for the energy system, as strict confinement measures such as lockdown and social distancing
compelled by governments worldwide resulted in a significant reduction in energy demand. In this study, a
novel, quantitative and uncomplex method for estimating the energy consumption loss due to the pandemic,
which was derived from epidemiological data in the beginning stages, is provided; the method bonds a datadriven
prediction (LSTM network) of energy consumption due to COVID-19 to an econometric model (ARDL)
so that the long- and short-term impact can be synthesized with adequate statistical validation. The results show
that energy loss is statistically correlated with the time-changing effective reproductive number (Rt) of the
disease, which can be viewed as quantifying confinement intensity and the severity of the earlier stages of the
pandemic. We detected a 1.62% decrease in electricity consumption loss caused by each percent decrease in Rt on
average. We verify our method by applying it to Germany and 5 U.S. states with various social features and
discuss implications and universality. Our results bridge the knowledge gap between key energy and epidemiological
parameters and provide policymakers with a more precise estimate of the pandemic’s impact on electricity
demand so that strategies can be formulated to minimize losses caused by similar crises.